Friday, December 14, 2007

Future Looks Bright for the China Photovoltaic (PV) Battery Industry as Solar Energy Goes Mainstream

DUBLIN, Ireland--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Research and Markets ( has announced the addition of China Photovoltaic (PV) Battery Industry Report, 2007 to their offering.

PV industry witnessed a rapid growth, and in the future it will have a nearly limitless outlook. During the ten years from 1996 to 2006, yield of solar batteries in the world has increased by 26 times with an annual compound growth rate of 38%. Besides, annual installations of solar batteries have increased by 22 times with annual compound growth rate of 36%. Such a growth is too speedy to compare for any other industries except for the semi-conductor industry. Though Germany is today's largest PV market, but solar power generation there still takes a low proportion of 0.5%. But solar energy will undoubtedly become one kind of mainstream energy; therefore, its market will witness a bright prospect in the long term.

From 2020 to 2030 solar energy will enter into the mainstream energy market on a large scale. Technical progress together with scale effects will steadily reduce the cost of PV batteries. Curve figures of PV industry in the past 40 years have shown that cost will down 15-20% once accumulated sales volume of PV batteries is doubled. Meanwhile, power generation cost with fossil fuel has been increasing for a long term. We estimated here by different geographic locations, that solar power generation cost in developed countries will approach electricity prices for the peak period from 2010 to 2030; and it will approach average electricity prices from 2020 to 2050.

Promotion from governments will still be the leading strength for industry development in the short run. Undoubtedly, The government plays a key role in boosting PV industry. Europe, USA and Japan all have recognized the importance of strategy to develop PV industry and they all have plans of their own. But the real development of the industry usually doesn't fit well with these plans. It's believed that existing policy in each country has established gigantic potential demands; and decline in growth speed in 2006 is caused by that growth of battery price has restrained demands. Therefore, as long as battery prices properly decline, growth of installed capacity can exceed 30%.

China PV industry focuses more on midstream and downstream businesses; and it will confront with considerable inconveniences on entry into upstream polysilicon business. China PV batteries list the 3rd in the world by production capacity; however, polysilicon raw materials and markets all lie in overseas market and domestic industrial structure is very irrational. Now market competition is fiercer and fiercer, and competitiveness of Chinese enterprises still lies in the cost. Undoubtedly, advantages for leading enterprises with long-term polysilicon orders will be enlarged; while enterprise with no strengths will be eliminated. Many investors are attracted by the huge profits. However, very few projects can really bring economic profits.

It is believed in the next few years, companies with sufficient polysilicon supply and manufacturers of amorphous silicon PV battery would obtain broad development space. As for crystalline silicon PV battery producers, only the strong can survive competition and gain more strength. Therefore PV enterprises with international resource and internet strength will particularly develop well. Film PV battery companies industrialized will enjoy a greater developing space, which will naturally draw much interest from investors.

1 Solar Energy is the Inevitable Energy Choice
1.1 Only Solar Energy can satisfy Future Energy Demands
1.2 Solar Energy is to enter into Mainstream Energy Market in 2020-2030
2 Supply and Demand Analysis on Global PV Market
2.1 Governments will still be the Leading Strength to boost Industry Development for a medium and long term
2.2 Existing Policies will boost Rapid Development of PV Market
2.3 Active Production Expansion by Battery Manufacturers, and Ample PV Batteries Production Capability
2.4 Polysilicon Supply Crisis is to start loosing at the end of 2008
3 PV Industry Chain
3.1 Pyramid Distribution has brought advantages of Upstream Enterprises
3.2 Competition Status
3.3 Optimization of Industry Chain will bring Cost Decline
4 China Solar Energy Industry
4.1 Most Enterprises Invested in Polysilicon
4.2 Difficulties in Starting China Market in the next few years
4.3 Relevant Listed Companies
Selected Charts
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