Tuesday, December 18, 2007

China Polysilicon Project Scan

2007 witnesses the hot investment of polysilicon production in China, over 10 new polysilicon projects were started in 2007, and there are more planned polysilicon projects in China. Tell you the truth, most of these polysilicon investors do not have any experience in producing polysilicon.

The polysilicon production output in 2006 was just 287 tons in China, and it is estimated the output will be about 1000 tons in 2007.

If all the started polysilicon projects could be completed as scheduled, the polysilicon production capacity will exceed 30,000 ton per year by the end of 2008 if we just add the planned production capacity together. But in general it will take these Chinese producers 2 or 3 years to fulfill their production capacity after they build the factories and have the production equipments at their factory, since it will take time for them to master the production technologies and train the engineers and workers.

My expected production output for 2008 is 3,000 tons, for 2009 is 10,000 tons and for 2010 is 20,000 tons.

The polysilicon production investment is overheated in China, and the margin for the investors will not be as high as expected since there are too many projects already and it will take them several years to fulfill the production capacity after they complete the facility construction, and several years later the polysilicon price will come down also.

Polysilicon production is lucrative at present, but only a few investors can make money from the polysilicon production, others will lose.