Friday, April 18, 2008

Analysis: China's polycrystalline silicon industry faces opportunity and risk

Xinhua Economic News Service, April 17, 2008 Thursday 11:10 PM EST

BEIJING, April 18 (Xinhua) - China's polycrystalline silicon industry is faced with an opportunity of increasing market demand as well as risks of overcapacity and repeated low-level construction

-- Robust demand pushes development of polycrystalline silicon industry

The global supply of polycrystalline silicon, a key raw material for producing semiconductor devices and solar cells, cannot meet the increasing market demand, offering an opportunity for China's polycrystalline silicon industry. The supply shortage will last until 2010.

As a result, polycrystalline silicon price surged from less than 40 US dollars/kg in 2003 to around 300 dollars/kg at present.

It is predicted that the polycrystalline silicon demand from semiconductor device manufacturing will hit 35,000 tons in 2010, and that from solar cell making will reach 50,000 tons.

--- Rapid expansion of polycrystalline silicon industry in China

The Leshan city in southwest China's Sichuan Province boasts a completed polycrystalline silicon production capacity of 15 million tons a year, accounting for nearly 80 percent of the national total. A national production base is looming in the city with a number of projects putting into operation and new projects starting construction this year.

The city plans to invest 20 billion yuan in the following five years to develop China's largest polycrystalline silicon production base with an annual polycrystalline silicon production capacity of 19, 500 tons and monocrystalline silicon production capacity of 2,000 tons, according to Jiang Xiaoting, a senior official of the city.

--- Hidden problems

Construction of polycrystalline silicon projects should be deployed in line with industrial characteristics, noted Jiang, adding that concentrated construction of large-scale production base is conducive to making better use of infrastructures and sideline products, dealing with waste and pollution and avoiding repeated introduction of foreign technologies.

Technology is a bottleneck for further development of China's polycrystalline silicon industry.
At present, China's production cost is twice that of economically developed countries, thus weakening the competitiveness of Chinese polycrystalline silicon.

If all the planned projects are in full operation, China is estimated to form a production capacity of 100,000 tons. In addition, the production capacity on overseas market will increase as well. The problem of overcapacity will occur, if downstream users cannot develop in an accordant pace.

Thursday, April 17, 2008

Shenzhen Topray Signed Silicon Wafer Purchase Agreement with Renesola

April 17th 2008, Shenzhen Topray signed silicon wafer purchase agreement with Renesola, Renesola will offer 105MW wafer to Shenzhen Topray starting July 2008 to June 2014, the total agreement value is about RMB 1.5 billion.

China Polysilicon Production Output in 2008

Several days ago a foreign friend discussed China polysilicon production output in 2008 with me, he gave me a figure of 7,360 metric tons, I was quite astonished. Being a Chinese I hope Chinese companies are able to produce more polysilicon to ease the raw material shortage problem in the PV industry.

It is a pity that my finding is just 3,000 to 5,000 metric tons, I am sorry that I cannot give you the exact figure since all the producers are not sure how much they can produce this year, the existing producers are trying to improve their production output, and the new producers are trying to start their production this year.

Today I read "Last year, these companies produced a total of 1,000 metric tons of polysilicon. Next year, we expect Chinese production to increase to 2,000 metric tons, as these companies improve their production processes and new companies ramp up production." from an article by Susan Gordon, an analyst at THT Research. According to my knowledge, the production from E'mei, Luoyang China Silicon and Sichuan Xin'guang Silicon will be about 2,000 metric tons in 2008, what's more Zhongneng began to produce polysilicon in September 2007, and some new producers will begin to produce polysilicon this year, anyhow the total figure will be at least 3,000 metric tons in 2008. If these projects go well, it is possible that the total figure will reach 5,000 metric tons in 2008.

And some Chinese companies are developing the non-Simens process to produce low cost polysilicon, if they succeed, the production output will be raised to a real high level.

At last, I just hope my figure is not too conservative.

Wednesday, April 16, 2008

ReneSola signs six-year deals to supply two Chinese companies with solar wafers

LONDON, Apr. 15, 2008 (Thomson Financial delivered by Newstex) -- ReneSola Ltd. (OOTC:RESLF) (NYSE:SOL) said it has signed six-year solar wafer supply contracts with Ningbo Solar Electric Power Co. Ltd. and Eoplly New Energy Technology Co. Ltd.

ReneSola, which manufactures silicon wafers for the solar PV industry said it will supply Ningbo Solar and Eoplly with 105 megawatts (MW) of solar wafers over a six-year period commencing in mid-2008.No financial details were given.

Fluor wins contract with LDK Solar

By SHERYL JEAN / The Dallas Morning News sjean@dallasnews.com

Irving-based Fluor Corp. said Tuesday that it has won a contract from LDK Solar Co. Ltd. for engineering, procurement and construction management services for $1 billion polysilicon plant in China.

Fluor booked the initial engineering and design work for the project in the third quarter of 2007, and the rest in the first quarter of this year.

The plant will be adjacent to LDK’s solar wafer manufacturing plant in Xinyu City, China, which is where LDK is based.

Construction began in August.

The three manufacturing lines are expected to be completed by July 2009.